Reflections on the Week - Malaysian GE

By the time you read this, Malaysia would have gotten up to the news that BN no longer has a 2/3 majority in Parliament, and the states of Selangor, Penang, Perak, Kedah & Kelentan are under opposition control. Barisan National's worst election showing since independence, and party leaders and political analysts alike will be scrambling for reasons. For me however, the situation poses 2 crucial questions on the future of stability in Malaysia, which would probably be the main regional and international concern.

Responsibility for this now lies largely in the hands of the opposition coalition between PAS, PKR and DAP. PKR, led by Anwar Ibrahim, campainging on the vision of a Malaysian Malaysia (which is not a new rallying cry as both UMNO founder Onn Jaafar and PAP founder Lee Kuan Yew have both campaigned on similar terms in the 60s), is the largest of the opposition parties in the Federal Parliament. But in terms of the local state governments, PAS is the largest party in Kelantan and Kedah. DAP is the largest opposition party in Penang and Perak. And PKR and DAP have the same number of seats in Selangor. Politically, the question must then be: Are all 3 opposition parties united behind a Malaysian Malaysia vision? Or is this an opportunisitic alliance? The facts tell a clear story, if not for the fact of an opposition coalition, BN would have retained control of Perak and Selangor as they are the single individual party with the highnest number of seats. The situation in Kedah too, would be risky for the opposition as PAS only has a 2 seat advantage over BN. In other words, all 3 opposition parties know that their success and consolidation relies heavily on cooperation. But to what extent will this cooperation last? Thus far, DAP & PKR have already indicated a willingness to form state governments in partnership with each other and PAS so that is a good sign. However, the situation gets more sticky when PAS is brought in. The demographics show that support for PAS is largely consolidated in the Muslim North of Malaysia, while DAP has clear Chinese backing. PKR is making an appeal to all races, but the support mainly comes from disgruntled Indians and Chinese. While DAP and PKR could coincide their aims for a Malaysian Malaysia and more equal treatment of all races, where will PAS position itself? It dropped its call for an Islamic state before the elections. Is this a determined move? Or opportunistic.

The answer then would lie in the hands of the people. Will the majority of the dominant Malays be willing to support an opposition championing for more equal treatment for all races? Or at least accept such an opposition? Or will deadly racial riots occur again. Are the votes for UMNO votes of the recognition of status quo, or the vote against a Malaysian Malaysia. The next 4 years will tell. Come next election, the future of Malaysia will be the fundamental electoral question. Will the opposition be able to fulfil their opportunity and stay as a united front championing a Malaysian Malaysia, and retain support for their governance? Or will BN undergo a radical transformation to also champion a Malaysian Malaysia? Or will the next General Elections be a vote for or against a Malaysian Malaysia.

I think alot will depend on one man -Anwar Ibrahim. His test will be two-fold, first will be his ability to hold the opposition to some form of agreement on a Malaysian Malaysia, and then second, his ability to convince the general public on the viability of a Malaysian Malaysia as far as Malay interests are concerned. The reaction of PM Badawi will be equally interesting, where does BN go from here?

Stability in Malaysia would have huge repercussions on the region's economy, and I believe on Singapore's political future as well. After all, it was the PAP in 1964 who failed to champion a Malaysian Malaysia. Now that things may change in Malaysia, are we thinking merger again? Or will this huge showing by the opposition in Malaysia against a traditionally dominant ruling party have repercussions on the opposition political scene in Singapore as well?